Forecast Markets

Forecast Markets allow group members to provide feedback on key forecasts and plans.

The Xpree toolset allows many different types of forecasts, including:

• dates (launch dates)
• quality (expected ratings)
• quantities (unit sales)
• yes/no type questions (will X acquire Y?)

Project Planning

Accurate project planning is essential for coordinating development teams and managing expectations. Realistic milestone dates are necessary to plan resources, marketing and sales campaigns.

The costs of a missed ship date include damaged reputations with customers, inefficient use of resources and overall waste in the supply chain that is relying on the delivery of this particular project. However, even with these costs, dates frequently move and typically only go in one direction. Examples include Microsoft Vista (2 years delayed) and the Boeing Dreamliner (10 months delayed and counting).

By including the development team in milestone forecasts, very accurate estimate can be obtained.

Ship Date Bet

Demand Planning

Forecasts of sales drive manufacturing decisions, revenue estimates, marketing plans and sales quotas. Accurate forecasts are required to avoid stock-outs while minimizing warehouse inventories. Biases exist in forecasting sales and can include “Lowballing" by Sales teams or over-optimism by Marketing.

By including a diverse group including Sales, Marketing, Finance, Customers and even the general public, a more accurate and balanced sales forecast can be obtained.

Strategic Planning

At the highest levels, prediction markets can be used to forecast industry growth, behavior of competitors and strategic opportunities

Examples of potential questions include:

• How much will the industry grow in 2009?
• Will Google launch a phone?
• Will Microsoft acquire Yahoo?
• When will the China office open?